🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Profited $436K from Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January rose in the time leading up to former President Trump stated on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody. One account, which became a member in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a initial bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Market statistics shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in positions right before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate. Several of other individuals also made large payouts from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on Monday seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. The industry were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."